Alys Rivers Killed Grover Tully on Purpose
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THEORY ASSESSMENT
The episode ground truth confirms Grover Tully's death enabled Daemon's Riverlands consolidation and that Alys was present as healer, which maps cleanly to the assassination claim, but the episode does not show the death itself or Alys's direct agency, requiring inference to close the gap.
STORY CONTEXT
Daemon came to raise an army and instead got waking nightmares. Theories here ask whether Harrenhal's curse is supernatural, psychological, or something Alys Rivers is actively orchestrating, and what it means that the walls seem to know his guilt.
WHY THIS MATTERS
If Alys orchestrated Grover Tully's death, then Daemon's military campaign in the Riverlands is built on a foundation he did not construct and cannot fully control. The show is asking whether a conqueror who weeps at another person's strategic gift is a conqueror at all.
Other Theories for S2E06
Mysaria Weaponizes Hunger Against the Greens
Mysaria is running a coordinated two-stage operation that inverts the political meaning of Rhaenyra's own blockade: her agents seed the taverns of Flea Bottom with messaging that Aemond feasts while commoners starve, then food boats arrive under Rhaenyra's banner to ensure relief is credited to the Blacks.
Aemond's Purge Is Larys's Harvest: How Absolute Rule Builds Its Own Blind Spot
Aemond is not filling a power vacuum; he is deliberately manufacturing one, removing every institutional check on his authority in a sequence too coherent to be reactive.
Seasmoke Runs a Two-Condition Screen the Crown Cannot Pass
Seasmoke's selection logic requires both Velaryon blood and the absence of presumptive claiming: a dual criterion that operates entirely outside royal authority.
Aemond's Coldness Is Childhood Wound, Not Politics
Aemond does not know that his removal of Alicent is a personal sentence.
Dragon Seeds Will Undermine Rhaenyra's Legitimacy
Rhaenyra's dragon seed program will succeed militarily while simultaneously destroying the ideological premise of her claim.
Rhaena Is Being Handed Sheepstealer
Lady Jeyne Arryn's 'alas, still wild' is an invitation, not a warning, and Rhaena is the intended recipient.
Aegon Remembers Everything and Fears Aemond
Aegon is performing amnesia about Rook's Rest because he remembers enough to know Aemond tried to kill him, and saying so while bedridden and surrounded by Aemond's allies would finish the job.
Otto Hightower Is Deliberately Staying Away
Otto Hightower's silence across every channel simultaneously is not absence but strategy: he has privately concluded that the Green cause under Aemond is unrecoverable, and he is preserving his distance from that failure so he can negotiate or reattach himself to whatever outcome survives.